The next recession could begin as early as the first half of 2020.

Are you prepared?

Download Guggenheim's Recession Forecast
Download Guggenheim's Recession Forecast
Guggenheim Investments’ Recession Probability Model

Our view that the next recession will begin as early as the first half of 2020 remains intact in the latest update of our Recession Dashboard and Recession Probability Model. Recession probability rose across all horizons in the first quarter of 2019, most notably in the 24-month timeframe. The Dashboard on the next page shows a loss of downward momentum in the unemployment rate, a flat yield curve, and slowing economic activity.

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Guggenheim Investments’ Recession Dashboard

The six indicators in our Recession Dashboard have exhibited consistent cyclical behavior that can be tracked relatively well in real time. We compare these indicators during the last five cycles that are similar in length to the current one, overlaying the current cycle. Taken together, they suggest that the expansion still has room to run for approximately 12 more months.

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GVCM Bull/Bear Barometer

This proprietary gauge of current market conditions attempts to quantify both the technical health of the market and strategist opinion into one indexed value on a weekly basis.  In essence, are we in a “Bullish” mode and risk-on, or a “Bearish” mode and risk-off?  Inputs include the current outlook of market strategists/money managers that we hold in high-regard**, coupled with popular technical indicators, investment sentiment gauges and proprietary tactical signals that historically have proven their long-term merits.***

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**  Market Strategist opinions from the following firms:  The Chartist, Ned Davis Research, Quantitative Analysis Services, Lowry’s Research, Howard Capital, Heritage Capital Research and Potomac Advisors.

***  Technical Indicators include:  Advance/Decline Indicator, VIX Index, sentiment polls (Investors Intelligence, The American Association of Individual Investors, National Association of Active Investment Management), and proprietary tactical signals from GVCM’s majority-owned AdvisorGuide LLC.